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Over 20 years experience of training in the care sector
Call us on
020 3129 5667
England’s adult social care sector could need around 685,000 workers between 2026 and 2035 to meet future demand and replace people expected to leave the workforce.
The figure comes from Skills England’s latest assessment of health and adult social care. It does not mean there are currently 685,000 vacancies. Instead, it combines projected growth in the sector with the number of workers likely to be needed to replace those who retire or leave.
For care providers, the message is clear: recruitment alone will not be enough. The sector will also need to develop, support and retain the people already working in care.
What does the 685,000 figure mean?
Skills England estimates that adult social care could need around 281,300 additional workers by 2035 because of increased demand. A further 404,000 workers may be needed between 2026 and 2035 to replace people leaving priority social care occupations.
Together, this creates projected demand for around 685,000 workers.
Care workers and home carers account for the largest share of projected growth, with around 199,000 additional workers potentially needed by 2035.
These figures relate to adult social care in England and are projections rather than guaranteed workforce numbers. However, they give a clear indication of the scale of the challenge ahead.
A workforce that is growing – but still under pressure
There has been some positive progress. Skills for Care reported that the adult social care workforce grew again in 2025/26, with around 22,000 more filled posts than the previous year. The vacancy rate fell to 6.2%, its lowest level for a decade.
However, this still represented around 96,000 vacancies on any given day, and the vacancy rate remained around three times higher than across the wider economy.
So while recruitment has improved, demand for care is expected to continue growing, making retention and workforce development increasingly important.
Care work requires skilled people
The Skills England assessment reinforces an important point: social care is skilled work.
Care or support workers need strong communication, listening and interpersonal skills. During a normal shift they may need to notice changes in someone’s health or behaviour, support choice and independence, communicate concerns, follow care plans, keep accurate records and know when something is outside their role.
These abilities are not developed through recruitment checks or a short induction alone. Workers need relevant learning, supervision, feedback and opportunities to apply knowledge in practice.
Skills England estimates that 79% of projected additional employment in priority adult social care occupations will require skills at Level 2 or Level 3, with 21% requiring Level 4 or above.
Why retention matters
Recruiting more people is only part of the solution. If experienced workers continue to leave, providers can become trapped in a cycle of vacancies, recruitment and repeated induction.
Pay, staffing levels and working conditions all influence retention, and training cannot solve these issues on its own. However, good learning and development can help people feel more confident, capable and able to see a future in the sector.
Workers benefit from structured induction, relevant training, regular supervision, constructive feedback and clear opportunities to progress.
Training should therefore be seen as part of workforce strategy, not simply as a list of mandatory courses to complete.
What should providers do now?
2035 may sound a long way away, but the workforce needed then has to be recruited, developed and retained over the coming years.
A good induction should prepare someone for their role, workplace and the people they will support. Digital learning can provide essential knowledge, but new workers also need opportunities to understand local procedures, observe experienced colleagues, ask questions and demonstrate safe practice.
Training should reflect the worker’s role and the needs of the people they support. Team discussions, reflective sessions, supervision and workplace observation can help turn knowledge into practice.
Strong day-to-day leadership can have a significant impact on people’s experience at work.
Supervisors and managers need the confidence to give feedback, conduct meaningful supervision, manage performance, respond to concerns and support development. Promoting an experienced care worker without preparing them for leadership can leave both the individual and their team unsupported.
Workers should be able to see how they can develop within their current role and what opportunities exist for progression.
Progression does not always have to mean management. Some workers may want to build expertise in areas such as dementia, autism, mental health or end-of-life care, while others may move towards leadership or specialist roles.
A completed course is useful evidence of learning, but it does not automatically demonstrate competence.
Providers should also consider whether workers can apply what they have learned, follow procedures and recognise when they need further advice. Observation, supervision, reflective discussion and workplace competence assessment can help provide a fuller picture.
A workforce strategy must also be a learning strategy
Meeting future workforce demand will require action across recruitment, pay, recognition, working conditions and workforce capacity. But it will also require providers to think seriously about how people are inducted, developed and supported to stay.
The strongest organisations will not simply recruit people to fill vacancies. They will create workplaces where people can build confidence, develop their skills, progress and see social care as a long-term career.
How CareTutor can help
CareTutor supports adult social care providers with flexible learning for care and support workers, supervisors, leaders and managers.
From induction and mandatory learning to continuing professional development and leadership programmes, our courses can help organisations build the knowledge and confidence their workforce needs.
Want to strengthen learning and development across your workforce? Speak to CareTutor to find out how our training solutions can support your teams, develop future leaders and help you build a more confident, capable workforce.